“Appreciating the role of climate change and its security impacts is important not only for understanding the social costs of our continuing heat-trapping emissions, but for prioritising responses, which could include aid and cooperation,” said Katharine Mach, director of the Stanford Environment Assessment Facility and the study’s lead author. In the event of a rise of global temperatures of two degrees Celsius, which is the stated goal of the Paris Agreement, the influence of climate on conflict would more than double, increasing to a 13pc chance. In a scenario with a rise of four degrees Celsius in global heating, which is the path humanity is set to be on by the end of the century unless serious course correction takes place, the influence of climate on conflicts would increase more than five times, equivalent to a 26pc chance of a substantial increase in conflict risk. An investigation by Stanford University has found that as global temperatures rise, so too will the risk of armed conflict.Ī study from Stanford University published in Nature has found that the ongoing climate crisis will increase the risk of violent armed conflict within countries.
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